More and more self-directed investors are learning an age old secret held tightly by large funds, family offices and industry superannuation’s funds.. ‘Illiquid return premium is real” You see it is commonly known in these circles that a return of approximately 400bps is on offer for holding investments that are not liquid versus the liquid equivalent. Eg. Private Equity verus Public Equity.
Wattle Partners for a long time has had this view and in fact that is what drives the return of the majority of the industry superannuation funds in Australia, upto 40% of the investment they market are illiquid and are the beneficiary of this so-called illiquid return premium.
Most SMSF’s hold only liquid investments, that is investments they can sell or redeem tomorrow, and hardly hold any investments that are not liquid, and as such are not the beneficiary of the illiquid return premium. In many cases it is not just asset allocation that drives returns it is also what type of investments are held.
One of the reasons why SMSF’s don’t hold illiquid investment, and I say one as there is many reasons to why self-directed investors don’t invest in illiquid investments, is deal flow. Eg. The ability to know about specific capital raises, private trusts, syndicates or new companies. If you are not well connected you would never see a lot of these offerings, in fact most are marketed straight to the investors that are away of the illiquid return premium; Family Offices, Institutions, wealthy individuals.
However, more recently there has been a global movement towards offering these type of investments to self directed investors, by creating a market place or a platform.
One such domestic platform that we believe has an excellent offering is Primary Markets. Primary Markets, as the name suggest, creates a market place for illiquid investments. Allowing investors to get access to illiquid opportunities, either for trading of existing illiquid investments, new capital raisings of either start up, expansions capital or IPO’s etc. The team at Primary Markets is headed by Nick Capp
that has a long history in Corporate Australia, with the current chairman being Brett Spork who was the former ceo of E-Trade and a director of Macquarie Bank. The head of Managing Director of Advisory at Primary Markets at James Green, ex head of Paterson Securities. This is a very experienced and knowledgeable team that has been doing similar things in a larger format for most of their career.
The platform has over $1.5billion of private companies on it and has raised or traded over $35million.
We recommend that all Self Directed Investors become a member, Membership is free at www.primarymarkets.com.au Some of the opportunities available on Primary Markets:
Multiple parcels of existing shares available for wholesale/sophisticated/accredited investors.
AIRR HOLDINGS LIMITED (AIRR)
AIRR is a member- based buying and marketing group that supplies its rural and peri- urban customers with a range of rural merchandise and animal feeds. These customers comprise members, who account for approximately 70% of sales, and wholesale customers. AIRR is not a franchise group. It is a buying group that offers its members buying power and the ability to compete by passing on the benefits of volume purchasing and a way of increasing a members’ product range without the need to invest in inventory. With a network of eight warehouses nationally and stocking approximately 6,000 Stock Keeping Units (SKUs), AIRR is a one stop distributor. AIRR also has its own brands; Apparent (crop protection), and Independents Own [iO] (animal health, general merchandise and feed).
A long track record of profitable growth — AIRR has continued its long track record of profitable growth with a 12.6% increase in NPAT in FY18. This was the fifth consecutive year of profitable growth for the company following a dip in profitability in 2013 which was the only year of negative growth for the company in almost a decade due to a dry summer. CAGR in EPS from 2010-2018 was 20% while 2010-2018 DPS CAGR was 16%.
FY18 result demonstrated strong costs containment – AIRR reported FY18 revenue growth of 2% and EBITDA growth of 12.2% to $21.4m. The EBITDA margin expanded to 6.0% in FY18 from 5.4% the year before and has grown three-fold in the past nine years. Employment costs were 7% lower year on year due to the payment of a long-term incentive to management in the prior year.
Management budgeting for strong growth in FY19 – Management is forecasting revenue growth of 3.7% in FY19 and EBITDA growth of 12.8%, demonstrating the benefit of the company’s operating leverage and its diversification strategy.
Diversification strategy – AIRR has diversified its product offering by introducing its own branded products (Apparent and Independents Own [iO]) and since inception has introduced an additional member category and brand “Tuckers Pet and Produce” to service the pet and hobby farm market. Products are sourced directly from Chinese and local manufacturers, held in AIRR warehouses and supplied to members at competitive prices.
Acquisitions – AIRR has acquired, post balance date, Hunter River Company Pty Ltd, which is forecasted by the company’s independent valuer, CoggerGurry, to contribute $1.0m to EBITDA in FY19.
AIRR has superior ROCE —AIRR recorded a Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) in FY18 of 34%, an increase of 300 basis points over FY17 and compared with the median 12% ROCE of its peer group, Ruralco, Nufarm, Ridley Corp and Elders. AIRR’s ROCE has consistently outperformed its peers since 2012.
Valuation —AIRR’s Board has historically commissioned an independent valuation each year to fix the price for share transfers undertaken in the next 12 months. The most recent valuation was undertaken by CoggerGurry, the Group’s independent auditors, at 30 June 2018. The future maintainable earnings method was used and resulted in a valuation of $7.89 per share. In our view, the valuation parameters were conservative, discounting the peer group by 20% and applying a minority interest discount of 10%. We have also utilised a compco valuation, but include NZ company, PGG Wrightson, and US group Nutrien, which owns Landmark, a direct competitor to AIRR. If we apply the current peer EV/ EBITDA multiple of 9.99x and the same discount rates as used by CoggerGurry, we arrive at a compco valuation of $9.85 a share. This implies a price to earnings ratio of 10.3x, well below the 15x long term PE of the Australian share market. Under the PrimaryMarkets trading platform, the shares now trade at prices determined by buyer and seller demand and the last traded price was $7.89 per share, putting the company on a PE ratio of 8.2x and at a substantial discount to the broader listed market and its listed peers.
TYRO PAYMENTS LIMITED
Tyro is a provider of payments and banking infrastructure and services to Australia’s small to medium enterprises (SMEs). In FY18, the company processed $13.4bn in transaction volumes, a year on year increase of 26% and an acceleration of the 23% growth rate delivered in the prior year. The Compound Annual Growth Rate from FY12 to FY18 in transaction volumes has been ~29%. Our analysis demonstrates that there is support for valuing Tyro above the last traded price of $1.10 a share and the 6-month VWAP to August 31 of $1.078 per share.
Tyro reports strong FY18 revenue and customer growth — Tyro has reported FY18 revenue growth of 23% to $148.3M, driven by a 26% increase in transaction volumes and 27% lift in merchants over the prior corresponding period. Tyro added close to 5,000 new merchants to its payments business in FY18, taking the total number of merchants using the EFTPOS/payments platform to more than 23,000. Transaction volumes increased by more than 30% in 2H18 over the prior period. Tyro now commands an estimated 7% share of its target market of transacting small-to-medium enterprises in Australia.
Demonstrating the benefit of leverage — Tyro’s nascent merchant cash advance, unsecured loan product delivered $25.2m in loan originations in FY18, an increase of 127% and demonstrating the opportunity for Tyro to leverage its merchant relationships into ancillary products. This product has only been offered, so far, to ~4,000 of Tyro’s 23,000+ merchants. Similarly, activations of the Tyro Bank Account – a fee free and interest paying business transaction deposit account – grew 262% to 1,285 in FY18, versus 355 in FY17.
New Initiatives — Tyro has announced a series of “firsts” in recent months, becoming the first bank to launch “least cost routing”, and the first Australian bank to forge a seamless, all in one EFTPOS solution with Alipay for Tyro’s merchants. It has also secured exclusive rights with six of Australia’s leading hospitality Point of Sale (POS) providers to connect to the Tyro Platform designed to streamline connectivity to third party apps.
Successful leadership transitions — Long-standing NED Rob Ferguson stepped down from the board in July 2018, having completed a nine-month stint from June 2017 as acting Managing Director and acting CEO before handing the reins to new CEO Robbie Cooke in March 2018. Rob has been succeeded by NED David Fite who brings several years’ banking experience including senior and group executive roles at Westpac and Japan’s Shinsei Bank.
Reverse DCF demonstrates last traded share price of $1.10 is assuming conservative growth — We have conducted a reverse DCF to determine what is implied in the last traded price of $1.10. We have applied a WACC of 11.0%, Beta of 1.25 and terminal growth rate of 2.2%. Tyro’s last traded price of $1.10/share implies market share of 13.2% in 2028 and a compound growth rate in revenues of 12.5%, a conservative growth rate, in our view.
Compco valuation at a premium to last traded price — Our analysis has derived multiples from comparative companies in Australia and the US in the payments processing market. Including Australian peers, the compco valuation is $1.76/share, excluding the Australian peers, tis rises to $2.08/share, reflecting the relative size and maturity of the peer group.
Growth equity opportunities for wholesale/sophisticated/accredited investors.
JUGGLE ST – CHILDCARE/HOME TUTOR JOB PLATFORM – A$1.25M SERIES A CAPITAL RAISE:
Since launching in December 2014, Juggle St has created a neighbourhood marketplace providing a real-time job platform to help working families manage their busy lives. The marketplace already has over 52,000 registered users across Australia and New Zealand. The Company is revenue generating and on track to be cashflow positive in early 2019.
In Australia, women’s workforce participation is 59.4%. One of the most difficult parental challenges is finding and sourcing reliable, trusted help in an efficient and speedy way. There are 2.1m working mums in Australia, this is Juggle Street’s target customer (aka Kelly). On average Kelly lives on Juggle Street for 15 years.
Kelly is responsible for the majority, if not all of the childcare decisions in her household. Juggle Street was created to solve Kelly’s multiple pain points. Juggle Street is NOT just a babysitting app, it’s an on-demand job platform built for many family jobs, including before and after school care, nannying, Au Pair, home tutoring, and in-home age care to name a few.
Unique real-time supply & demand guarantees fair market pricing:
- Parents set the price they are willing to pay for each job
- Helpers decide if the job is “worth it” and apply or decline
- Hourly rates posted and accepted average between A$10-A$30 p/h
- Helpers get paid cash by the family at the end of each job
Juggle Street’s disruptive business model has created an affordable, scalable marketplace built on its world leading technology platform. Juggle Street is unlocking an entirely new market of people who offer Local Services like babysitters, nannies, Au Pairs and home tutors but have never before advertised online. Juggle Street has a unique supply and demand pricing mechanism with a leading-edge scalable tech platform. In July Juggle Street expanded its childcare offering to include Au Pairs and launched into the burgeoning Home Tutoring market. Juggle Street will launch in New Zealand in August, with the UK targeted as the next geographic expansion.
- Home Tutoring
- In-home age care (launching 2019)
- Families – Juggle Street is free for parents to join and connect with trusted helpers in their neighbourhood. To transact with helpers, families have the option to pay for each job they post or subscribe to a
- Helpers – Juggle Street is free to join and use for helpers (potential future revenue stream).
Series A raising A$1.25m:
• Amount raised: A$905,000
• Amount available: A$345,000
• Pre-money valuation: A$5.0M
• Share price: A$0.26 each
• Post-money equity position –
– A$1.25 mil = 20.29% equity
– 18.47% fully diluted
• Total raised since July 2014 $2.4m
Board of directors
The Company recently added Hugh Bickerstaff and Marina Go to its board. Hugh Bickerstaff, chief investment officer at Investible, has joined as non-executive director, while Marina Go, chair of NRL club Wests Tigers and non-executive director of organisations including Energy Australia, has come on as a non-executive director and Chair.
TSM – FIELD SERVICE MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE – A$3M CAPITAL RAISING:
TSM (or The Service Manager) has extensive experience in delivering leading-edge software solutions in the field service management industry. With a team of 15 and an active customer base of 400 companies, the Company is well-established and poised for significant growth. TSM recently launched ServiceVu, its next-generation pure cloud product infused with the DNA of our legacy product developed over 25 years.
The Field Service Management Software market is poised for significant growth over the next 5 years:
- Field Service companies (e.g. HVAC, Electrical, Plumbing) have traditionally been tech averse with a low-level use of vertical specific job management software adoption (<25%)
- Large Australian market with 80k companies worth over $50B annually
- Increased competition, consolidation and cost pressure driving need to streamline and
There is a significant unmet need in the market for a solution which is flexible and has specific workflows and features for market verticals:
- Alignment to business workflows most important factor on software selection from market
- Ability to implement business rules, validation, automation, report customisation and integration with other systems are critical to a company’s efficiency and effectiveness
- Competitor’s products are inflexible and cannot cater for vertical nuances (e.g. HVAC services (installation vs maintenance) and customer base (residential vs commercial) vary dramatically).TSM is seeking A$3M in growth capex (pre-money valuation of A$7M) to accelerate development and marketing of ServiceVu over the next 18 months providing additional cutting-edge functionality, enabling international expansion and establishing TSM as a leader in Field Service software across multiple market verticals.
Use of funds
• Accelerate development of service management platform (~A$1M)
– Further development of ServiceVu including an HVAC specific variant, through the hiring of an additional 2 full time developers
– Engagement of UI experts to aid in software look and feel and creation of self-help training courseware and documentation to facilitate deployment (immediate)
– Hiring of support and training staff member
• Establish brand/product awareness and promote trial of software (~A$2M)
– Increase brand awareness through marketing initiatives (SEO, social medial, advertising, conferences, website, collateral)
– Extension of existing dedicated sales team and sales channels in Australasia
– Hiring of dedicated sales team and development of sales channels in US
With ServiceVu (leveraging Microsoft’s .NET framework and hosted in Azure), TSM will rapidly scale and take advantage of the latest software trends such as AI, IoT and Augmented Reality to provide world beating software capable of handling the most demanding Field Service challenge.